While most companies contemplate going public as a natural evolution of their growth trajectory, Ledger has adopted a decidedly binary approach to its IPO ambitions—declaring it will either list on a US exchange within three years or forgo public markets entirely.
This all-or-nothing stance reflects the peculiar dynamics of crypto company valuations, where regulatory jurisdiction can make or break billion-dollar ambitions. Ledger’s CEO has effectively placed the company’s public market aspirations hostage to American capital markets—a bold gambit considering the regulatory whiplash that has characterized US crypto policy in recent years.
The French hardware wallet manufacturer’s ultimatum appears less quixotic when viewed through the lens of comparable company valuations. Despite protecting over 20% of global crypto assets through approximately 8 million devices sold worldwide, Ledger’s 2023 valuation of $1.4 billion pales against peers like Fireblocks ($8 billion) and Chainalysis ($8.6 billion).
This valuation gap likely explains why management views US listing as existential rather than preferential. The company’s positioning occurs as DeFi platforms continue to revolutionize peer-to-peer transactions without intermediaries, managing billions in total value locked across protocols like Uniswap and AAVE.
Ledger’s profitability since inception—a rarity in the crypto infrastructure space—provides strategic flexibility for this high-stakes waiting game. The company derives half its revenue from software services rather than hardware sales alone, creating recurring revenue streams that should theoretically appeal to public market investors regardless of jurisdiction. The company’s comprehensive portfolio includes devices like the Nano X, Nano S, and Blue, which integrate enterprise-level encryption and authentication methods.
Ledger’s rare profitability and diversified revenue streams create strategic leverage in their audacious American IPO gambit.
Yet management remains convinced that only American exchanges can reveal the premium valuations necessary to achieve their audacious $100 billion enterprise vision. The company’s strategic hiring includes bringing aboard Tony Fadell, the former Apple executive renowned for iPod development, to enhance product design capabilities.
The timing aligns with broader industry expectations of a crypto IPO renaissance in 2025, potentially featuring Circle, Gemini, Kraken, and BitGo alongside Ledger. Recent political shifts have created a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, though whether this translates into sustained policy clarity remains uncertain.
Ledger’s diversification strategy beyond crypto into mainstream cybersecurity represents prudent risk management, yet the company’s IPO stance suggests leadership believes American capital markets remain the singular path to unicorn-to-decacorn transformation.
This binary approach fundamentally transforms Ledger’s public offering from a corporate milestone into a geopolitical bet—one where regulatory winds, rather than financial fundamentals, may ultimately determine whether shareholders ever materialize.
